Probability of a cardiovascular event in the next decade.
Source: D'Agostino et al., Circulation 2008 — general CVD risk score.
What does the Framingham risk score mean?
The Framingham Risk Score estimates your probability of experiencing a major cardiovascular event, including coronary heart disease, stroke, peripheral artery disease, or heart failure, within the next 10 years. It was derived from data collected in the Framingham Heart Study, a longitudinal study of cardiovascular disease that began in Framingham, Massachusetts in 1948.
This calculator uses the 2008 general CVD risk score by D'Agostino and colleagues (Circulation 2008), which expanded the original coronary heart disease score to include all cardiovascular endpoints. Input variables include age, sex, total cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, blood pressure treatment, smoking, and diabetes. Each factor receives a point score based on sex-specific regression coefficients derived from the study cohort.
The output is a percentage probability. A 15% score means that out of 100 people with the same risk profile, approximately 15 would be expected to have a cardiovascular event in the next 10 years. This does not mean you personally have a 15% chance, individual outcomes are not predictable; the score describes a population average.
Limitations include derivation from a predominantly White, American population and potential miscalibration in other populations. Factors not captured by the score, family history, C-reactive protein, coronary calcium score, can meaningfully modify risk at the individual level.
Reference ranges
| Risk category | 10-year CVD risk | Typical recommendation |
|---|---|---|
| Low | < 10% | Lifestyle optimisation; statins generally not indicated |
| Intermediate | 10 – 20% | Shared decision-making; consider statins |
| High | > 20% | Statin therapy and aggressive risk factor management |
When should you see a doctor?
Anyone with a Framingham risk above 10% should discuss results with their doctor. Even a "low risk" result does not mean no risk, it means risk from these factors alone is relatively low. If you have a strong family history of premature heart disease, have had blood markers such as elevated CRP, or have had a coronary artery calcium scan showing calcification, your actual risk may be higher than the score suggests.